The Time Has Come (the Walrus said) Archives

Gillarrd lossage theory

This blog is pretty much in archive mode these days, but what the heck, time to come back for another serve at politicians.

So today’s topic is: why is Labor under Gillard going to get absolutely belted at the September election?

Answer: Because a large percentage of the population can’t stand Julia Gillard.

It’s also fair to say they don’t like (and often can’t stand) Tony Abbott either, it comes down to a choice of picking the least worst, and right now that’s Tony.

Why is it people can’t stand Julia? Dunno. I for one can’t bear the school-marm voice that spouts meaningless platitudes, in a manner designed to make me feel like I’m 7 years old, staring at my feet, being told off for some minor infraction.

I honestly thought that after Simon Creans falling-on-sword moment, that Gillard would be gone within a fortnight; something that turned out not to be.

But Labor have been staring for ages at this mystical light at the end of the tunnel, knowing full well that it is the lamp of the front of the oncoming train, and they’re about to get smashed. They’ve known for months, at least a year. The bull and spin about the most important poll being election day is just so much bluster. They thought some magical rabbit could be pulled from a hat that would fix their troubles: have Tony make some fatal mistake, and they’d squeak back.

This was never to be – simply because the public stopped listening a year or more ago – except when some daft new piece of legislation was to be enacted in which case a big stink has stopped it, not once but 3 or 4 times in the last year. That’s not the sign of a government that knows what it is doing, or a bunch of pollies with confidence. Out of touch: yes. Arrogant: yes. Foolish: yes. Trusted: No!

But why, why, why has Julia not been tipped out by now?

She’s never going to go herself, the glory of being the first female PM with a huge ego means that she thinks she owes one to the girls, and besides, there’s not really any clear replacement anyhow.

But my theory is that the clincher is overlooked: The Julia screaming lecture in Parliament to Tony Abbott about misogyny. Whilst this has been used by the dictionary compilers to redefine the meaning of the word (!), I believe this speech served 2 purposes:

(1) it was meant to try and switch as much as possible of the female from the Liberals – stirring up a bit more hatred for Abott; just another version of an excrement-throwing exercise (hope some sticks); but also (and far more subtly):

(2) it scared the crap out of any leadership pretenders on her own side; anybody now making a move against Gillard will by her own definition be a misogynist. In the politically correct world of Labor and quotas for female MPs, this will be used internally and in the media to cast a death-wish on any male.

So now we have the spectacle of Labor sitting like a rabbit in the headlights, unable to move out of the way, just moments from being splattered over the road.

When Tony Abbott has led his party to a landslide victory we will need, more than ever, a strong opposition. Ditching Julia now won’t let Labor win, but it might lead to Tony’s victory being a little less decisive.

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